As a product manager, I know how easy it can be to get trapped into the every day and lose sight of what the future could bring. We tend to get immersed in the more tactical, day-to-day stuff and forget about the bigger picture. Also, there’s a daily avalanche of new technology developments and market trends, and it can be tempting to act on the latest trend, out of sheer fear to miss out. But how do you know whether it’s worth following up on a specific trend!?
A few months ago I learned more about how to best identify and assess trends by listening to a podcast with Max Luthy — Director of Trends & Insights at TrendWatching. TrendWatching have developed this very handy framework in the “Trend Canvas” (see Fig. 1 below).
Fig. 1 — The Trend Canvas by TrendWatching — Taken from: http://trendwatching.com/x/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014-05-CONSUMER-TREND-CANVAS1.pdf
The Trend Canvas distinguishes between the “Analyze” and the “Apply” stages. During the Analyze stage, you assess a trend and its underlying drivers. What are the basic consumer needs a trend is serving and why? What kinds of change is this trend driving and why? In contrast, during the Apply stage you’ll look at ways in which you and your business can best tap into a trend, and who would benefit from this trend.
I’ve found the Trend Canvas to be very useful when exploring and assessing trends. The thing I like most about this framework is that it forces you to think about the customer and how a customer is impacted by a particular trend. Let’s take the trend of electric cars as a good example:
Fig. 2 — Smart Electric Drive — Taken from: https://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/31/11-electric-cars-with-most-range-list/
- Basic needs — What deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address? — I haven’t spoken to many electric car owners yet, but the ones that I’ve spoken to mention “environmental consciousness” and “cost saving” as the basic needs that drove their purchase of an electric car. The experts at TrendWatching mention some other typical types of basic of needs worth considering as part of your analysis (see Fig. 3 below).
- Drivers of Change — Why is this trend emerging now? — What’s changing? — To analyse the drivers of change, it’s worth looking at ‘shifts’ and ‘triggers’. Shifts are the long-term, macro changes that often take years or decades to fully materialise. For example, a rapidly growing global middle class and increasing scarcity of oil are significant drivers of the appeal of electric cars (this report contains some interesting insights in this regard). Triggers are the more immediate changes that drive the emergence of a consumer trend. These can include specific technologies, political events, economic shocks and environmental incidents. I feel that recent improvements to both the technology and infrastructure with regard to electric cars are important triggers.
- Emerging Consumer Expectations — What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created by the changes identified above? — Where and how does this trend satisfy them? — Purchasing expensive fuel for your car is no longer a given, and consumers starting to become much aware of the cheaper and environmentally friendly alternative in electric cars.
- Inspiration — How are other businesses applying this trend? — When analysing a trend, a key part of the analysis involves looking at how incumbent businesses are applying a trend. For example, the Renault-Nissan alliance has thus far been the most successful when it comes to electric cars and learning about the ‘why’ behind their success will help one’s own trend analysis.
Fig. 3 — Basic needs categories to consider when analysing trends — Taken from: http://trendwatching.com/x/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014-05-CONSUMER-TREND-CANVAS1.pdf
- Social status
- Social interaction
- Innovation Panel — How and where could you apply this trend to your business? — To me, this is one of the crucial steps when exploring trends; asking yourself that all important question — how can I best apply this trend to my business? For example, how does a specific trend fit in with our current offering of products and services? Why (not)? It’s similar to when you assess a product opportunity and go through a number of questions to look at the viability of a trend for your business (see Fig. 4 below).
- Who? Which (new) customer groups could you apply this trend to? What would you have to change? — How often do we forget to think properly about who this trend is for and why they benefit from it. Which demographic is this trend relevant for and why? For instance, with electric cars, one could think about middle class families who are very cost and environmentally conscious consumers.
Fig. 4 — Assessing “Innovation Panel” when applying trends — Taken from: http://trendwatching.com/x/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/2014-05-CONSUMER-TREND-CANVAS1.pdf
- Vision: How will the deeper shifts underlying this trend shape your company’s long-term vision?
- Business Model: Can you apply this trend to launch a whole new business venture or brand?
- Product / Service / Experience: What new products and services could you create in light of this trend? How will you adapt your current products and services?
- Campaign: How can you incorporate this trend into your campaigns, and show consumers you speak their language, that you ‘get it’.
Main learning point: The Trend Canvas provides a great way for anyone to assess trends and innovations, looking at a trend from both a consumer and a business point of view.
Related links for further learning: